Two in one this year, given the sabbatical. And don’t mention the Euros! Far too traumatic, from start to finish, for England. I think we can all agree that Spain were the best team by far.

Looking back

These were my predictions for the Premier League in 2023-24, with the outcome in brackets.

1-Arsenal (2). 2-Newcastle (7). 3-Man City (1). 4-Liverpool (3). 5-Chelsea (6). 6-Man Utd (8). 7-Spurs (5). 8-Villa (4). 9-Brighton (11). 10-West Ham (9). 11-Brentford (16). 12-Fulham (13). 13-Bournemouth (12). 14-Burnley (19). 15-Forest (17). 16-Wolves (14). 17-Palace (10). 18-Everton (15). 19-Luton (18). 20-Sheff Utd (20).

So the only prediction I got spot-on was poor ol’ Sheff Utd, who clearly weren’t fit for the Premier League. Luton were a good bet to go down too, and they did. But after a decent fight. More was expected of Burnley, after the way they won the Championship, but their defending was badly deficient in the Premier League. Strangely their manager, Vincent Kompany, has been rewarded with the Bayern Munich job! A leap of faith, for sure.

At the top I once again tipped Arsenal. And once again City ground them down at the end. A fine campaign by the Gunners, with Declan Rice a star, showing more attacking quality than he was allowed to at West Ham. But not quite enough ruthlessness in the final stages. The home defeat to Villa was the killer, though you could just as easily cite losing to Fulham and West Ham at the turn of the year. What is so depressing is that City weren’t even at their best, but still had enough to win the title. They are admirable, of course, but it’s all a bit soulless – unless you are a City fan.

I overestimated Newcastle and Brentford and underestimated Villa and Palace. Villa deserve great credit for breaking into the top four, with a side that didn’t really feel top four. Manager Unai Emery deserves a lot of praise for that. Palace were struggling until they ditched Roy Hodgson and brought in the German Oliver Glasner. He instilled an attacking mentality that allowed the likes of Eze, Olise and Mateta to thrive. It helped that they stayed fit. That had been a problem earlier. Newcastle perhaps found playing in the Champions League too much, and they suffered from a lot of injuries. The new Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) are restricting their ability to chuck the Saudi money at the team. As for Brentford, I detect a case of punching above their weight, which might be beginning to take its toll. I hope I’m wrong – they’re my local team.

West Ham did roughly what I expected, but in a rather manic way. There’d be a run of great results followed by a slump, then the same again. The low block football remained a source of frustration for the fans, and every time we lost a couple of games the cries of Moyes Out rang through social media. We had a decent run in the Europa League, losing a little unluckily to Bayer Leverkusen in the quarter finals. They were only the best team in Germany last season. David Moyes left at the end of the season, no doubt feeling that his achievements in the last few seasons haven’t been properly recognised. And that is true. But, but… the football was often so grim. Take a lead then sit back and hang on. It was tortuous. So thanks, David, for saving us from relegation, then coming 7th, 7^th, 14th and 9th, and winning a European trophy for the first time since 1965. But you didn’t do it the West Ham way!

Looking forward

My predictions for 2024-25 are below. They are sooooo boring! Sorry, what can you do? I got the top eight right last season, if not in the same order. It’s all about the money. Always was, for the most part. Could we get another Leicester now? I doubt it – unless City finally get points docked or kicked out of the Premier League for those alleged financial irregularities. I’m always hoping that Arsenal will do it, and they were great last season. They’ve strengthened the defence further with the addition of Calafiori and the return from injury of Timber. But that final touch of a ruthless striker? Not yet. City have weakened their squad by selling Alvarez, but I’m sure they’ll replace him with someone equally good before the window closes.

So, yeah, I’m accepting the inevitable this season. Here we go:

1 – Man City

2 – Arsenal

3 – Liverpool

4 – Chelsea

5 – Spurs

6 – Man Utd

7 – West Ham

8 – Newcastle

9 – Villa

10 – Palace

11 – Fulham

12 – Everton

13 – Wolves

14 – Forest

15 – Leicester

16 – Brighton

17 – Brentford

18 – Bournemouth

19 – Southampton

20 – Ipswich

Probably my most radical departure from the consensus is having Villa ninth. I’m thinking they might struggle in the same way as Newcastle last year.  Putting Chelsea fourth is tempting fate, obviously. There still seems to be an air of chaos at the club – and is Maresco up to the job? But they do have some very talented players. Palace in tenth rather depends on them keeping their best players. So far only Olise has gone, but if they were to lose Guehi, Andersen and Eze, I’d be worried for them.

I have a feeling Liverpool might do well and break up the top two – there’s a lot of potential in the squad, and Salah will be refreshed. Spurs will be improved by the acquisition of Solanke, so they might surprise people too. I’d like to include West Ham in this analysis – our transfer activity has been very exciting. Fullkrug, Summerville, Rodriguez, Guilherme, Kilman, Todibo, Wan Bissaka. That’s the best ever close season. I can’t help feeling they’ll have sell someone to offset the cost, and Kudus is the obvious player. I hope not, but otherwise we will surely be rubbing up against the PSR. Paqueta remains our key player with Bowen, as long as he isn’t banned for betting irregularities. But nothing seems clear about that.

A lot of predictions have the three promoted clubs – Leicester, Southampton and Ipswich – going down. I think some of that is because all three went down last season. But that isn’t typical. I’d say Leicester are best placed to stay up – they still have a core of players who really shouldn’t have gone down two seasons ago. I’d love to see Ipswich stay up – I have a soft spot for them as the first team I used to go to watch as a teenager. They have a very bright manager in Kieran McKenna. But do they have the quality? Southampton, who knows. They have a Premier League pedigree, but they have the same issue as Ipswich. The best hope for all the promoted clubs is obviously that clubs that have been doing alright hit the rocks. I’m thinking Bournemouth might be in that position, especially after selling Solanke. Brentford were under strain last season, and the future of Toney remains unresolved as I write. And how long can Brighton keep regenerating, after losing managers and players? As for Nottingham Forest, I’m completely confused, and I’m sure a lot of their fans are too.

The uncertainty truly starts outside, let’s say, the top eight. A bad run can put any club below the elite in danger of relegation. Meanwhile at the top, it does change from year to year. Newcastle and Villa have broken into the top four in the last two seasons. Arsenal had a few years in the relative wilderness. Man Utd still look marooned in mediocrity but you always feel they may suddenly come good. Chelsea could be anything; Spurs could easily be top four. Could West Ham be this season’s surprise successes? The recruitment gives us hope, but how good a manager is Lopetegui? He has managed Spain, Real Madrid, Seville – and Wolves. It’s a pretty impressive CV – though some of his jobs ended badly. I’m not expecting brilliant things, but am hoping that top six is possible.

But as a seasoned West Ham fan I’m still braced for the possibility of Lopetegui being sacked when we are in the bottom three at Christmas!