The Premier League season begins this Friday, 15 August, with champions Liverpool at home to Bournemouth. Time for the traditional predictions for the season ahead and a review of last season.

2024-25

Liverpool’s season by a mile. A ten point margin over second-placed Arsenal, who had a strong Champions League run, but suffered from the lack of a real goal scorer up front, especially after Havertz was injured. Man City – my prediction to win – were hampered more than we might have expected by Rodri’s injury. They also had a lot of disruption to the defence while key players like De Bruyne, Gundogan and Silva looked past their best. But you have to hand it to Arne Slot in his first season as Liverpool manager: taking the Klopp team, tweaking the game plan and walking away with the league.  Helped by the sustained brilliance of Mohammed Salah and the imperious defending and leadership of Virgil van Dijk.

Talking of Liverpool, my heart goes out to all those who were close to Diogo Jota and his brother Andre Silva, who were killed in a car crash in Spain this summer. A tragic loss for them and the whole football community. The sadness I felt reminded me that football and great footballers, even the ones we don’t support, really do light up our lives.

It was a season of surprises, not least the shocking league form of Tottenham and Man United. Add West Ham to that list. My predictions had them finishing 5^th, 6^th and 7^th; they finished 17^th, 15^th and 14^th respectively. West Ham never really recovered from the disastrous start under Lopetegui, when the players didn’t seem to have a clue about what system they were playing. Graham Potter steadied the ship sufficiently to avoid relegation, and for that we West Ham fans must be grateful. But it was a very disappointing outcome, especially after all the money spent on players the previous summer. As for the other two, their travails occupied the media all year, so I won’t add to it, except to say that the Europa League final between them was the one of the worst European finals I have ever watched. The only one that might have been even poorer was the 2019 Champions League final between Liverpool and Tottenham. There seems to be a common factor…

Anyway, Spurs’ victory in the Europa League means they secured a Champions League spot while coming 17^th in the Premier League. They celebrated that first trophy for 17 years by sacking manager Ange Postecoglu.

For the second season running, all three promoted teams were relegated. I thought Leicester might survive, and had them 15^th. They were unlucky to lose their manager Maresca to Chelsea, and his replacement, Steve Cooper, wasn’t doing that badly when the board panicked and sacked him. Bizarrely they appointed Ruud van Nistelrooy on the evidence of him winning a few games as caretaker manager of Man United when they sacked Ten Hag mid-season. Leicester paid the price.

There were some great success stories too. Newcastle came fifth and won the League Cup – their first trophy for 56 years! The last one was the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup in 1969 – the predecessor to the UEFA Cup and now the Europa League. I love the story of stalwart Toon defender Dan Burn, who has made his way up the leagues. He scored a goal in the final and won his first England cap in the same week! Nice guys do sometimes win.

Congratulations to Crystal Palace for winning the FA Cup, beating Man City in the final. Their first trophy ever. A joyful and well-deserved victory. And a shout out to Nottingham Forest, transformed from near relegation in 2023-24 to 7^th place, after being in the top four for much of the season. Their reward was a Conference League place which has been upgraded to Europa League as Palace have been demoted from Europa to Conference as the result of some ownership issues.

Villa, Brighton, Bournemouth, Fulham and Brentford all impressed at times too, especially Villa, with a run to the quarter finals of the Champions League, where they lost narrowly to PSG over two legs.

I fancied Chelsea to keep improving and they did, finishing fourth. They also won the Conference league as a bit of an afterthought – it meant so much more to us success-starved West Ham fans in 2023. And I guess I should acknowledge that they won the Club World Cup this summer. Beating PSG 3-0 in the final was an impressive achievement. I didn’t watch any of the tournament – I felt that it was an unwarranted intrusion into players’ recovery time in the close season, a cynical money-making exercise. A step too far.

What we did have this summer was the thrill of watching England’s women’s team, the Lionesses, win the European Championship for the second time running, beating Spain on penalties in the final. I watched that game at Latitude festival – a memorable experience. The team showed great resilience throughout the tournament, great belief that they could do it, even when the odds looked stacked against them, as they often did. I hope the men’s team find inspiration from their example in next year’s World Cup.

Anyway, here is how my predictions fared against the reality:

Predictions for 2025-26

Let’s go straight to the numbers:

Making predictions before the transfer window closes is always a bit of a mug’s game, as a lot could change at some clubs before the end of the month. For example, will Liverpool buy Guehi and Isak? Will Arsenal get Eze, or will Spurs sneak in? What will Palace do if they lose another two of their best players? Will anyone move for Donnarumma, now he’s out of favour at PSG? Will West Ham manage to buy any midfielders?

Most readers will think I’m mad to have Liverpool in fourth for the coming season. They’re probably right. The Isak question above may settle it. But I do think there’s little to choose between the top four this season. Arsenal have strengthened in key areas with Zubimendi, Gyokeres – at last a centre forward! – Mosquera and Madueke. Yes, Liverpool likewise with Wirtz, Kerkez, Frimpong and Ekitike, although they have lost Trent, Nunez, Diaz and, tragically, Diego Jota. Chelsea keep on buying talented players like Joao Pedro, Delap, Hato and the young Brazilian Estevao (bought in 2024, but remaining at Palmeiras last season). The questions, as ever, are can they be integrated in Maresca’s system, what about the ones who rarely get a game, is the defence good enough to win the title? And can they move the ball forward a bit quicker – it’s still quite easy for teams to sit back and let Chelsea doodle with the ball on the halfway line.

Man City have almost become the forgotten team, after one disappointing season. But Rodri is fit again and they have Reijnders also reinforcing defensive midfield. Cherki is an interesting addition in attacking midfield, and Ait-Nouri from Wolves will mean City have a proper left back this season. Tthe best is probably yet to come from Marmoush up front. And let us not forget the goal scoring machine that is Haaland. Get the ball to him and he’ll do the rest.

I’m going for Arsenal to go the distance this time and win the League, after three second places. There is now depth in all positions. Nwaneri has a new long term contract, Madueke will provide competition and cover for both Saka and Martinelli, and there’s a new wonder kid on the block, fifteen year old Max Dowman. He may be used sparingly, but he’s been causing a sensation in pre-season. Declan Rice will be free to surge forward more with Zubimendi and/or Norgaard behind him. Havertz can play his more natural role behind the main striker with Gyokeres leading the line. Exciting times at the Emirates, though the challenge this season may be greater than last, when they really should have put Liverpool under more pressure. I think Man City may turn out to be the main danger to their ambitions: regrouped, refreshed, back to their clinical best?

Elsewhere, I’m expecting Man Utd to be a lot better this season, with the new front line of Cunha, Sesko and Mbeumo. Fernandes feeding them from midfield. An exciting prospect for United fans, after all the gloom. No excuses for manager Ruben Amorim anymore. Tottenham too, should vastly improve under Thomas Frank, though whether they’ll cope with the conflicting pressures of the Premier and Champions leagues is a moot point. I think Kudus is a good buy for them, even though he was disappointing for West Ham last season. I assume he has made up with Van der Ven, who got him sent off – and a five game suspension – last season! Palhinha, ex-Fulham and on loan from Bayern should make the midfield more solid.

There’s a bit of discontent at Newcastle, especially over the Isak situation, and they will have Champions League fixtures to contend with. I think they’ll slip a little in the Premier League. Forest, with Europa League demands, may have to settle for mid-table, though they’ve bought an interesting Brazilian striker, Igor Jesus. And they’ve done well to keep Morgan Gibbs-White, after it looked like he was going to Spurs.

Villa are a good side, but I suspect they might tread water this season. Likewise Fulham. As for Everton, David Moyes rescued them last season and they have their new stadium. Getting Jack Grealish on loan was a coup and he could galvanise them. I hope he does, and plays himself back into the England squad, where he belongs.

Palace fans must be on tenterhooks about Eze and Guehi, but they have a good track record of finding able replacements and are masters of the 3-4-3 under manager Oliver Glasner. Amorim take note! Brighton will no doubt keep regenerating while they sell key players, but I think Bournemouth might start to struggle after their sales. I’m more worried for Brentford. They’ve lost their manager, their star forward, Mbeumo, a leader in Norgaard, and may yet lose striker Wissa. The “R” word is being mentioned. I think they’ll just hang on, with Wolves more likely for the drop, having lost the likes of Cunha and Ait-Nouri.

Will all three promoted sides go back down this time? I’m not so sure. I fancy Leeds to survive as long as the defence isn’t as leaky as last time. Burnley’s promotion was based on a solid defence, unlike when they came up under Vincent Kompany. But do they have enough all round quality? I’m not sure. Sunderland are a potential wild card, as they have spent a lot of money on a lot of players. Are they any good, will they gel? I’ve no idea. But their fans will give them strong support. I still think they’ll go down, but they’ll have fun along the way.

Which leaves West Ham. There’s not a huge amount of optimism around the club. A straw poll by the Athletic showed West Ham fans to be the third least optimistic, after Wolves and Newcastle. Newcastle! That must be the Isak affair. A more rigorous YouGov poll of fans at all Premier League clubs suggests half of West Ham fans expect a mid-table finish, and I’d go along with that. It is a worry that the only striker brought in is 34 years old Callum Wilson, who is often injured; but there is hope that a fit Fullkrug could have a good season leading the line, and hopefully prolific young striker Callum Marshall might get his chance. And who knows, Summerville might be fit one day? No new, younger and faster legs have been brought from outside into midfield yet, though there’s time. But Paqueta is back, freed from the gambling charges that hung over him for two years. And there are three promising academy players who could make their mark in midfield: Potts, Orford and Earthy (currently injured). Freddie Potts seems the most likely at this point. We have a promising new goalkeeper in Mads Hermansen from Leicester, and a young, fast left back, El Hadji Malick Diouf from Slavia Prague. Kyle Walker-Peters will provide cover and experience on both sides of defence.

So, I’ve been able to talk myself into a glass half-full position regarding the Irons. Graham Potter is a good manager, notwithstanding his Chelsea experience, and has had a full pre-season with most of the players. Jarrod Bowen will once again lead the way, I’m sure – please don’t let Newcastle make a late bid for him if they sell Isak! Wan-Bissaka was player of the last season and I expect more of the same.  And I’m hopeful we’ll see better from the likes of Alvarez – still starring for Mexico – and Kilman than last season. The quality is there; we just need more clarity, more commitment, more confidence. Has Potter been able to instil that? We are about to find out!