The Premier League season begins this Friday, 21 August, with champions Arsenal at home to newly-promoted Coventry. Time for the traditional predictions for the season ahead and a review of last season.

2025-26

Here’s how my predictions fared:

So finally, Arsenal did it! It was a nervy run in, with City lurking and beating Arsenal 2-0 in the League Cup final then 2-1 at the Etihad in April. But after that result, Arsenal were pretty strong and they ended up winning the league by seven points. I have to say they got away with it against West Ham, when amazingly the Irons were penalised for holding at a corner, when they’d equalised. Against Arsenal, the masters of the penalty box dark arts. But I swallowed that one, as it was crucial to Arsenal’s title campaign.

Let’s briefly stick to my successes. I forecast Liverpool to come fourth. The reaction from some of my readers was disbelief. How could that be? Mighty Liverpool, who’d won the previous title by ten points. I felt they were in transition. Isak and then Ekitike got long term injuries. They came fifth. Further disbelief was expressed at my putting Man Utd fifth, after they finished 16^th the season before. I liked their new forward line. They came third, after sacking Amorim and bringing in old boy Michael Carrick as manager.

That was it, pretty much. I had Chelsea third; they finished tenth. They were doing alright under Maresca, but he engineered his own sacking – as Nuno did at Forest earlier, and Glasner failed to do at Palace – as Man City whispered sweet nothings to him, with Pep Guardiola expected to leave at the end of the season. The hapless Liam Rosenior got drafted in from Strasbourg to replace him. He talked jargon and didn’t achieve much. He got the chop just before the end of the season.

I underestimated Aston Villa. Well done to them, coming fourth. But really, it was because Chelsea and Liverpool blew it. I also failed to see the rise of three Bs – Bournemouth, Brighton and Brentford. All very well-managed clubs, who continue to work wonders in the transfer market. Bournemouth especially. They lose a key player, they find another just as good. Sixth place was an astonishing achievement, but how much was down to the manager, Iraola? He’s gone now. Brentford lost their manager Thomas Frank (to Spurs), strikers Mbeumo and Wissa to Man Utd and Newcastle, and midfielder Norgaard to Arsenal (where he hardly played). They looked in trouble; but Keith Andrews, the internal appointment as manager, did brilliantly. They just missed out on a Conference League place.

The biggest underestimation, which just about everyone was guilty of, was of Sunderland. Dead certs for relegation after getting promoted through the play offs. They started brilliantly – including beating West Ham 3-0 in their first game – and made the Stadium of Light a fortress. With hindsight, they recruited superbly in the close season and had an excellent manager in Regis Le Bris. They faltered late on then revived and finished seventh.

Newcastle were a bit of a flop. The loss of Isak to Liverpool hit them hard, and neither of the new strikers, Woltemade and Wissa, made much impact at the end. The German, Woltemade started well, but faded, and scored a spectacular own goal against local rivals Sunderland. Wissa was mostly injured.

The biggest flops of all were Tottenham and West Ham. By the end of the season they were battling it out to stay up, with Wolves and Burnley gone. Spurs started the season with Thomas Frank. It quickly went wrong. The Brentford defensive style with quick breaking didn’t suit the Spurs players – or the fans. He was sacked in February. Inexplicably Spurs replaced him with the unknown Croat, Igor Tudor. He was a disaster, and was sacked after seven games in March. If only they’d hung on to him…

De Zerbi, ex Brighton and more recently, Marseille, was drafted in, and he just about revived Spurs enough to survive. Which meant West Ham went down, not helped by losing three of the last five games. The whole season was a bit of a disaster, relegation a long time coming. I won’t dwell on it here. Suffice to say that while the team was a bit unlucky to go down with 39 points, it was the culmination of mismanagement at the top, poor recruitment of players and complacency over many years. Probably all goes back to moving out of the Boleyn Ground for the cheap rent at the London Stadium. Time for some humility and hopefully regeneration in the Championship. More of that in another blog.

 Predictions for 2026-27

Let’s go straight to the numbers:

A couple of weeks ago I was wondering whether a slow start, with World Cup players not returning for a while, might hamper Arsenal’s challenge for a successive title. Then I watched highlights – an hour – of their 3-0 win against Man City in the Community Shield. Ok, it’s just a one-off to herald the start of the season, and no team winning it has gone on to win the Premier League since 2018. But Arsenal looked so much stronger and coherent than Man City, and the squad depth was there for all to see. And both Rice and Saka came off the bench – so much for their lay offs. There will be a weight off their shoulders, having won the title last season. They will want to go one step further in the Champions League, but I don’t think Arteta will prioritise that at the expense of the Premier League. The loss of Saliba for some time is a blow, but they have plenty of cover, and will probably buy someone like Quansah or Konsa. Gyokeres has yet fully to convince – his first touch is not quite Arsenal standard – but they have Havertz. Tzolis looks like a good acquisition on the left, and Guimaraes will bring something different in midfield, including goals. So I’m sticking with Arsenal to win the title.

After that, it looks up for grabs. All the traditional top teams look to be in transition. City have to overcome the loss of their manager Pep Guardiola, and senior players like Bernado Silva, Rodri and John Stones. They’ve bought Elliott Anderson (for a ridiculous price) and have a lot of talent, including the Big Man up front, who will no doubt score 20-30 goals. But Maresca did not convince me at Chelsea – the build up play was so slow and predictable. You can never write City off, if only because of their money, but this could be a season of working out who they want to be.

Man Utd could be anything. They haven’t bought many new players yet, but Tielemans is a good addition. Santos, I’m not so sure – we’ll see. They have the Champions League this season, so I suspect top four will be a good result. I thought Iraola was a good fit for Liverpool, as a lot of their players and fans wanted a return to Klopp-like gegenpressing. But have they really got the players for it? Iraola is already making defensive noises. I expect Isak to return to goal-scoring form though. Chelsea are the wild card. New and highly rated manager in Alonso. Morgan Rogers added to the squad. No European distractions. Just for fun, really, I’ve put them second. They could just as easily be sixth. Spurs narrowly avoided relegation last year, but have certainly boosted their midfield with Fernandes from West Ham and Tonali from Newcastle. Van Hecke in defence will help, while Romero has gone to his perfect club – the masters of shithousery, Atletico Madrid. I’ve squeezed them into sixth place, though one of the Bs, or Aston Villa, could certainly beat them to it.

I haven’t quite figured out Villa. Selling Rogers hardly looks like ambition, but they have made some interesting purchases – and look out for their young centre forward Brian Madjo. Newcastle have ripped the heart out of their side, selling Gordon, Tonali and Guimaraes. And Eddie Howe has left as manager. Can they fully recover from that? I’m not sure.

Of the Bs, Brighton and Bournemouth have European football. That could take its toll. Likewise Sunderland, who I thought were punching well above their weight anyway. They need to watch it in the Premier League this season. Brentford, on the other hand, can focus on the Premier League. I’ve got them seventh – probably the kiss of death!

Forest and Leeds will, I think, continue to improve, after both dicing with relegation last season, before pulling away. I’m intrigued that Leeds managed to get Harry Wilson from Fulham on a free after his excellent season last year. Everton will be solid if unexciting again – it’s David Moyes, after all! If I was a Palace or Fulham fan, I’d be a little worried. Both have lost successful managers. There is player churn. Palace will probably survive, but not much more. Fulham, I’m less sure about. If any of the promoted sides do well, I think they could be the most vulnerable.

Last season bucked the trend, with two of the promoted sides staying up – Leeds and Sunderland. Can that happen again? I doubt it. Ipswich have spent a lot of money, but I’m not sure about the quality. Hull will rely on spirit and determination, which only lasts so long. Coventry were the class side in the Championship last year. They seem to be relying, thus far, on mostly the same set of players. Burnley have twice recently been the best team in the Championship then been relegated from the Premier League. I’m punting on Coventry staying up and Fulham going down, but without much conviction.

Anyway, I’m looking forward to the start of the Premier League and a resounding Arsenal win against Coventry. Meanwhile my main concern will be the Championship. But that’s another story…